The case
The Kelbridge Service Centre is a fictional customer-contact operation with two teams of fourteen on the same floor. Over six months, Team B has lost three staff, its mean score on a validated exhaustion scale has reached 74 out of 100, and supervisor performance ratings have fallen. Team A, across the corridor, has not. A review is commissioned, and it releases what it finds in two rounds.
Experiment 1 - two rounds of evidence
Nothing about Team B changes between the rounds. Only what you have been shown does.
Key terms
- Level of the explanation
- Whether something is accounted for by properties of individuals or by features of the setting they are in. A real difference between people does not settle which.
- Selection
- People not being distributed across settings at random, so that a difference between two teams has more than one reading.
- Intervention target
- What a proposed remedy acts on. Two remedies can move the same score and leave quite different things running.
Commit after each round
There is no penalty for changing your mind, and no penalty for refusing to choose between the levels. Both are recorded.
- 1. The people
- 2. The team and the work
What you have said so far
Experiment 2 - spend the budget
Six interventions, three levels, and ten units to spend on twenty units' worth of them. The model that turns your combination into a twelve-month projection is printed in the teaching notes; the numbers are illustrative and are not forecasts of anything.
Choose, model, and read what is left running
The number that matters is not the exhaustion score. It is the list underneath it.
Twelve months later
Combinations you have modelled
| Combination | Cost | Levels | Exhaustion |
|---|
Challenge - what does the case license?
Five conclusions somebody might draw from the Kelbridge review. Say whether each is supported, partly supported, or not supported.
What this demonstrates
A real difference between people says nothing about where the cause is
The correlation of 0.61 in Team B is real, orderly and would replicate. It is also entirely compatible with the whole team being at 74 because of a rota. A correlation between people measures how they vary within one setting - and a setting that is constant for everybody cannot show up in it at all. That is not a subtlety about statistics; it is the reason a workplace can produce a textbook individual-differences finding and a structural problem at the same time, and it is why the correlation survives every intervention in experiment 2.
What you conclude depends on when you stop looking
Round 1 contains only individual-level evidence, and the individual-level explanation is the best-supported reading of it. That is not a trap. It is what happens whenever a review is scoped to one level: the evidence that would have pointed elsewhere is not absent from the world, it is absent from the file. Ask who chose the scope, and what it would have cost to widen it.
"The setting" is at least two different things
Round 2 hands you the team and the work together, and they are not the same level. Norms about asking for help live between people; a rota and a target are built into the job before anybody arrives. The distinction matters because it decides what you buy: a debrief in protected time treats the norm, and a rota redesign treats the conditions under which that norm formed. If the relational mechanisms are carrying the effect rather than causing it, treating them alone leaves the source in place - and the team gets a weekly meeting in which to discuss a rota nobody has changed.
Team A is the whole argument, and it is not a randomised trial
Two teams, matched on staff characteristics at recruitment, on the same floor, doing nominally the same job, thirty-six points apart. That comparison is why the structural reading becomes compelling in round 2, and it is worth being precise about its limits: matched at recruitment is not matched now, three people have left Team B, and nobody randomly assigned anyone to a rota. It is strong evidence and it is not proof, and the difference matters if somebody is about to spend money on it.
Every intervention leaves something running
Spend the whole budget on resilience and coaching and the split shifts, the queue and the calls-per-hour target are all still there, quietly reloading the exhaustion the training just discharged - which is why the model halves the effect of resilience training when nothing structural has changed. Spend the whole budget on the rota and the target and two people still have a documented training gap that no scheduling change will close. There is no combination in this laboratory that leaves nothing running, and finding out which residue you can live with is the actual decision.
Where the problem is located, and who carries it
An explanation that places the problem in the staff makes the staff the thing to be repaired: it is cheaper, faster, requires nobody else's permission, and if it fails the failure belongs to the people who were trained. An explanation that places it in the work design implicates a scheduling system, a target and a sign-off policy, all of which belong to somebody more senior. Both explanations can be partly true at once, so the choice between them is rarely settled by the evidence alone - and noticing whose interests each framing serves is part of reading a review, not a substitute for reading it.
For teaching elsewhere: take this activity as one self-contained block of HTML, on the clipboard or as a file. Either way it is styled so that it will not disturb the page you put it into.